From TV ratings to the stakes, The Game rules. But the sport is changing (2024)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The era of the late November college football blockbuster may have peaked. And if that’s the case, the 2006 game between Michigan and Ohio State will go down as the pinnacle of the genre.

That year, it was No. 1 Ohio State versus No. 2 Michigan in Columbus with a spot in the BCS National Championship Game on the line. As if the stakes weren’t high enough, legendary Michigan coach Bo Schembechler died roughly 24 hours before the game, ensuring the nation would be glued to the screen when the teams took the field the following day.

Kirk Herbstreit was in the ABC broadcast booth that day alongside Brent Musburger and Bob Davie for a later-than-usual 3:30 p.m. kickoff at Ohio Stadium. When it became apparent that the Buckeyes and Wolverines were on a similar collision course in 2022, Herbstreit’s mind immediately went back to 2006 and the aura of destiny surrounding those two teams. Recalling the magnitude of that game, Herbstreit found himself doing something that doesn’t come naturally for a former Ohio State quarterback.

“I was pulling for Michigan last week to be able to win their game against Illinois and was hoping the two teams would get to this point where there’s a winner-take-all vibe to it,” said Herbstreit, who will be in Columbus for ESPN’s “College GameDay” broadcast before flying to Los Angeles to call the Notre Dame–USC game Saturday night. “I don’t know if it is truly winner take all, but it certainly feels that way.”

This rivalry is special.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/U22D5bqyTD

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) November 24, 2022

Ohio State’s 42-39 victory against the Wolverines in 2006 drew an average audience of 21 million viewers, making it one of the highest-rated regular season college football games on record. Saturday’s game between the No. 2 Buckeyes and No. 3 Wolverines isn’t expected to reach that number, but it’s likely to top Tennessee–Georgia as the most-watched game of the season so far, with a projected audience of more than 15 million viewers for the noon broadcast on Fox.

“This is the game of the year,” Michigan center Olu Oluwatimi said. “Everybody around the country is going to be watching. At 12 o’clock or noon, I don’t know too many people that aren’t going to be tuned in to what we’re doing.”

‘A perfect storm’

This year’s Michigan-Ohio State game represents a perfect storm for Fox and the Big Ten. It’s a showdown of two undefeated rivals and a showcase for Heisman Trophy contenders, with a revenge angle for the Buckeyes and a trip to the Big Ten title game and the College Football Playoff on the line. It also lands during a historic Thanksgiving week, with Fox broadcasting a Black Friday World Cup match between USA and England as well its usual Thursday and Sunday NFL games.

“It’s really one of those occasions in college football or college sports in general where you have a combination of a lot of factors driving it in this big direction,” said Kerry Kenny, the Big Ten’s senior vice president for television, media analytics and emerging platforms.

For those wondering why Fox, CBS and NBC will pay more than $8 billion to broadcast Big Ten sporting events for the duration of new seven-year deals, look no further than this game. Michigan and Ohio State are two of the biggest brands and most reliable TV draws in college football. Neither played a ranked opponent last week, but their respective games against Illinois and Maryland were the two highest-rated games of Week 12.

Most watched CFB games, Week 12:

Ohio St-Maryland (ABC): 6.6M
Illinois-Michigan (ABC): 5.5M
Tennessee-S Car (ESPN): 4.9M
USC-UCLA (FOX): 4.52M
UGA-Kentucky (CBS): 4.48M
TCU-Baylor (FOX): 4.4M
OK St-Oklahoma (ABC): 3M
Utah-Oregon (ESPN): 2.54M
Iowa-Minnesota (FOX): 2.5M

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 22, 2022

There’s a case to be made that Michigan-Ohio State is the most valuable rivalry in college sports. Actually, it’s not much of a debate. The Wolverines and Buckeyes have played two of the three highest-rated regular season games of the past decade and four of the top 10, according to the website Sports Media Watch. The Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama is the only rivalry that comes close, and the audience for that game has declined since it peaked with 13.78 million viewers for the Kick Six game in 2013.

Highest-rated regular season college football games, 2013-2022

(Source: Sports Media Watch)

Diminishing importance of November showdowns?

As a rivalry that will shape college football in the coming decade, Michigan-Ohio State tops the list. Though The Game is always going to matter, there’s a sense around the sport that winner-take-all showdowns like this one may be on their way out.

As early as 2024, the CFP will expand from four teams to 12. That will mean a larger number of meaningful games involving a wider pool of contenders. The tradeoff is these late-season top-five matchups won’t carry the sense of drama that they do under the current system.

After South Carolina upset Tennessee last Saturday night, Herbstreit and GameDay researcher Chris Fallica mused about the implications of that game in a 12-team system. The two-loss Volunteers, No. 10 in this week’s CFP rankings, wouldn’t be eliminated. The outcome would matter, but there wouldn’t be a sense of one game altering the course of the entire season.

“We would lose this ‘oh my gosh’ moment in late November,” Herbstreit said. “That, I think, is very accurate and sad. I do love that you win late in the year and you’re in, you lose and you’re out.”

For much of college football’s history, November was for winnowing the field of contenders down to the final two or three teams capable of winning a national championship. In years when the Wolverines and Buckeyes both were in the hunt, their rivalry was a de facto elimination game.

During the Ten Year War of the 1970s, Michigan and Ohio State met three times as unbeatens and five times as top-five opponents. The winner went to the Rose Bowl and, prior to 1976, the loser stayed home. In those days, there were no second chances or consolation prizes. Everything was building toward the month of November and the season’s final crescendo, the Michigan-Ohio State game.

“We used to always say, ‘September is for pretenders, November is for contenders,’” said Jim Tressel, who went 9-1 against Michigan as Ohio State’s head coach from 2001 to 2010. “It’s fun to watch November take shape and see who’s going to rise to the top. When you had the opportunity to play your rivalry game right at the end, your goal was to be playing the best you’ve played all year on that last Saturday.”

As early as 2006, that was beginning to change. The game between the Buckeyes and Wolverines, the top two teams in the BCS standings, went down to the wire, with Michigan scoring late and the Buckeyes recovering an onside kick to seal the victory.

After the game, Herbstreit suggested that Michigan had a case to stay at No. 2, a comment that was embellished by Florida coach Urban Meyer for motivational purposes. The Gators edged Michigan by a slim margin in the BCS rankings and beat Ohio State 41-14 in the national championship game, preserving the memory of the Michigan-OSU “Game of the Century” as a true winner-take-all showdown.

If the CFP had been around in 2006, Michigan and Ohio State both would have gotten in. It’s possible, though hardly guaranteed, that the loser of Saturday’s game will finish in the top four. In a 12-team system, Saturday’s game would matter mostly for seeding.

‘A world of its own’

That doesn’t mean the Michigan-Ohio State showdown is in danger of becoming irrelevant. Like any good rivalry, this one doesn’t depend on the external stakes. Playoff implications can elevate the game to a higher pitch, but the rivalry draws its heat from within.

“Whether they will be 1 and 2 or 2 and 3, who knows,” Tressel said. “When they play, it really doesn’t matter. That game has a world of its own.”

College football exists in a perpetual tug-of-war between tradition and change, with change having the upper hand at the moment. The expanded CFP, the arrival of USC and UCLA in the Big Ten and the anticipated overhaul of the league’s scheduling model will have implications for The Game, even if protecting Michigan-Ohio State remains a priority.

The Big Ten will keep its East-West divisional alignment for 2023 before adopting a new format to accommodate the arrival of USC and UCLA. The new model has not been determined, but one option is to scrap the divisions in favor of annual protected rivalries. In such a scenario, it’s possible that Michigan and Ohio State could play on the final Saturday of the regular season, then meet a week later in the Big Ten title game.

The ratings would be massive, but as a standalone event, the regular-season matchup wouldn’t carry the same weight, especially if both teams are solidly in the CFP field. The stars have to align perfectly for Michigan and Ohio State to meet as undefeated teams, so even in a 12-team system, the stakes aren’t going to change dramatically. In those years when fates collide — as in 2006, and now in 2022 — The Game would feel more like a prelude than a crescendo.

For fans who enjoy the drama of a winner-take-all showdown in late November, this is a game to savor. Who knows when it will happen again.

“Even with all the realignment and SC and UCLA coming in and everything else that’s going to happen, I still think when you see certain teams on the field, it’s part of the beauty of the sport,” Herbstreit said. “I hope the leaders to-be-will realize you’ve got to keep feeding into these rivalries to make them continue to be special for the next generation.”

(Photo of Michigan receiver A.J. Henning: Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)

Austin Meek covers Michigan football and basketball for The Athletic. He previously covered college sports for The Topeka Capital-Journal and served as sports columnist at The Register-Guard in Eugene, Oregon. Follow Austin on Twitter @byaustinmeek